The Jury has begun with RC and we are now down to ten survivors vying for the million dollar prize but who will be left standing to claim the title of sole survivor? In this article I'll explore who has the best chance of winning. I think we can eliminate three players right away. Those being Jonathon, Carter, and Malcolm. After last weeks episode I believe Jonathon is a dead man walking. Everyone is gunning him, he's used his idol, and there are still two more in play so it will be a while before a new one is put back into circulation if ever. So Jonathon will basically have to go on quite an individual immunity run to make it to the end. Given the fact that Jonathon has never one an individual challenge he has virtually no chance of lasting until the end. I'm pretty sure he'll be going home this week.
At first I thought Jeff and Carter were dead men too but with the variable of Malcolm and Denise I think Jeff still has an outside chance of making it to the end. However, even if Carter makes it to the end he's too dumb to win the game.
With an idol still in his pocket that no one suspects he has, Malcolm seems to be in great position. However, as anyone who has read my article on next season's cast knows, Malcolm is coming back next season for an apparent sequel to Fans Vs Favorites. Since no winners were brought back last time, it's a safe assumption that Malcolm would not be the only winner to be asked back for this installment.
That leaves seven others. I'll list them in order of their chances.
First is Artis. He barely even makes the list of possibilities. He does however have a fairly strong alliance at this point, and is good at physical challenges so it's quite probable for him to go deep into the game. However, he hasn't seemed to form any close relationships and I think the only two players he has a shot of beating in votes are Pete and Abi. Even then he's a long shot.
Next is Jeff. I think he made a really bad move last week by not taking out Pete. He had a golden opportunity to take control of the game and he blew it. I'm even starting to suspect, that maybe the games starting to get to him and subconsiously he may be trying to sabotage himself. However if his head is still in the game, and he can get Mike, Malcolm, and Lisa to team up with himself, Carter, and Denise to take out Pete, Abi, and Artis, he still has a shot of making it to the end. Even with his bad knee, I think he's still a big threat at challenges.
Like Jeff and Carter, Mike is very close to being out of this game but we all know what a strong player he is. When he played in Australia his team dominated in challenges and this season his tribe never went to tribal council. He'll most likely be voted out soon after Penner but if he and Jeff can team up they might be able to pull a rabbit out their hats. We can be pretty certain RC will vote for him over anyone else. Of course Pete, Artis and Abi are highly unlikely to vote for him if they end up on the jury.
That brings us to Abi who barely makes it ahead of Jeff and Mike. Like Artis she has a strong alliance and is very powerful with her idol, but she's playing the worst social game since Russell Hantz. If this article were about who is most likely to make it to the final episode, she would be at the top of the list. To have any hope of winning she's going to have to be sitting next to Artis and someone else pretty bad. Her best chance would probably be against Artis and Carter. Another thing she has going for her is the fact that she is a woman and in five of the six previous seasons to feature returning players the winner has been a woman.
One spot ahead of Abi by a wide margin is her partner in crime Pete. This guy has to be one of the biggest surprises of any player in Survivor history. When the game began he seemed destined to be a typical dumb jock who wouldn't do much of anything but he is playing an shockingly clever and strategic game that makes me wonder if he's related to Boston Rob. So will Pete actually win!? If Jeff continues to play badly Pete has a great shot. However he has two things going against him. He's a man and RC and Mike will only vote for him if he's sitting next to Abi and Artis. Of course that combination is a very strong possibility at this point.
Now we have someone who has been to every tribal council, and that's Denise. Can Denise become the first survivor to go to every tribal council of the season? Although her situation was once bleak she now has a lot of things going for her. While she may not be the best player of the season she probably has the highest IQ and she's extremely fit, which makes her a HUGE threat in challenges (She already has one win under her belt). She's also well liked by just about everyone and like Abi she's a woman. Lastly, she's aligned with someone in possession of an idol.
That leaves us with one last player. I NEVER would of imagined I'd be saying this when I first heard she was going to be on the show but I believe Lisa "Blair Warner" Welchel is the current favorite to win this season! After the first two episodes her chances of even making the merge seemed pretty slim but I'm reminded of how the editors made Boston Rob look to be in danger during the first few episodes of Redemption Island. Could those scenes of Lisa breaking down have been a red herring to throw us all off? That possibility seems to be growing with each episode. We saw Amazon winner Jenna and South Pacific winner Sophie in similar situations. Lisa is in a strong alliance with Tandang and now has a backup sub alliance with Malcolm and Denise. So she's basically aligned with two people who have idols. She may not be much of a threat in physical challenges but her performance in pre-merge challenges shows she's no slouch at mental challenges. She's also demonstrated strong speaking skills at her first tribal council. This is no surprise given the fact that she's made millions of dollars as a performer, which will give her a huge edge if she makes it to the last tribal council.
Now I believe the final five will probably be Abi, Pete, Malcolm, Lisa, and either Denise or Artis. I think Pete and Abi will probably be in the final three. If Lisa goes up against those two she may very well win by unanimous vote. Personally nothing would make me happier then to see my childhood crush win Survivor! Go Lisa!
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